G5: LTV:CAC by Channel
Data as of 17 seconds ago
Recoveries shown on this page are alternative paths, not additive to other lever pages. Observable March 2026 gap to break-even ≈ 90k KES/mo. Stack levers carefully — claimed totals across G1+G2+G3+G4+G5 exceed the observable gap. Pick highest-confidence move first.
Meta acquisition is unprofitable in the 90d window. LTV:CAC = 0.96:1 — each Meta-acquired customer returns 2,393 KES in 90 days against a 2,490 KES acquisition cost. Net-negative on revenue alone before COGS, fees, and fulfillment. Until repeat purchase rate or Meta CAC improves materially, scaling Meta spend deepens the loss.
Channel attribution: 77.9% coverage. Bulk journey pull complete (2026-04-25 17:48). 9,021 orders pulled with customerJourneySummary + UTM fallback. 7,028 orders attributed to a non-direct channel; remaining 22.1% mostly direct/organic (nairomarket.co.ke direct landings + "an unknown source"). All numbers below are computed from real channel data, not estimates.
Meta CAC (March 2026, per new buyer)
Meta-attributed Orders (March)
Meta LTV 90d (Jan cohort)
Meta LTV:CAC
Meta LTV:CAC = 0.96:1 — Meta acquisition unprofitable in 90d window before COGS. Each Meta-acquired customer returns 2,393 KES in 90 days against a 2,490 KES acquisition cost. Net-negative on revenue alone — before COGS (~50–60% of GMV), fees, and fulfillment. This is materially worse than the prior 1.07:1 reading (which used wrong spend source and wrong CAC denominator). Direct/organic LTV ≈ 2,073 KES per customer with zero acquisition cost (effectively infinite LTV:CAC) — the most profitable channel by far, currently ungrown.
Sources: Meta Ads insights (w11, Jan 25 – Apr 25 2026) × Shopify orders journey (Apr 25 2026). See glossary.
CAC by channel
Meta (Facebook/Instagram) is the only paid acquisition channel. CAC = Meta spend (adset_insights, w11) ÷ new unique customers (customer_order_index = 1, non-cancelled). March 2026: 525,332 KES spend ÷ 211 new Meta customers = 2,490 KES CAC.
CAC by Channel — March 2026
Why is Meta CAC now 2,490 KES (was 1,770)? Two corrections applied per sprint 3 reconciliation: (1) spend source changed from placement_insights.parquet (old w3 pull, 500,769 KES) to adset_insights.parquet (w11, 525,332 KES); (2) denominator changed from unique_customers (includes repeat buyers) to new_customers with customer_order_index = 1 (211 first-time buyers). Canonical CAC = acquisition cost per net-new customer. March 2026: 274 non-cancelled Meta-attributed orders from 211 new customers.
Cohort LTV — 30 / 60 / 90 day
Computed from Shopify orders journey pull: first non-cancelled order per customer (MIN(createdAt)) defines cohort month. LTV = sum of all orders (including repeat) attributed to that customer within the window, divided by cohort size. Cancelled orders excluded.
Cohort LTV by Month
LTV trend is positive: Jan cohort 2,393 → Feb 2,278 → Mar 2,350 (90d, with Feb partially overlapping Mar cohort). However, the Jan 2026 Meta cohort LTV at 90d (2,393 KES) is below the March 2026 Meta CAC (2,490 KES) — meaning even the best-matured cohort available does not recover the cost of acquiring a customer. This is the 0.96:1 LTV:CAC ratio.
Repeat purchase rate implication: If LTV90 ≈ 2,393 and avg order ≈ 2,085, the "effective orders per customer in 90d" is ~1.15. Almost no one buys twice in 90 days. Improving repeat rate (via email, SMS, WhatsApp) could compound LTV significantly without additional CAC spend.
LTV:CAC ratio by channel
Industry benchmark: 3:1 (3x LTV vs CAC). Below 1:1 = unprofitable acquisition on revenue alone (before COGS). Below 2:1 signals unsustainable paid acquisition. Above 5:1 suggests underinvestment (could scale faster).
LTV:CAC Ratio by Channel
Meta LTV:CAC = 0.96:1 — Meta acquisition unprofitable in the 90d window before COGS. The Jan 2026 cohort (fully matured at 90d) returns 2,393 KES per customer against a March 2026 acquisition cost of 2,490 KES. This is net-negative on revenue before COGS (~50–60% of GMV), fulfillment, and platform fees. The prior 1.07:1 reading used old spend data (placement_insights w3, 500,769 KES) and wrong denominator (all unique buyers vs new customers only). Sprint 3 reconciliation confirms 0.96:1 as the canonical ratio.
Channel attribution coverage
Channel Attribution Coverage
Journey pull complete (2026-04-25 17:48). 77.9% of non-cancelled orders now have first_visit_source from customerJourneySummary. All channel numbers on this page are computed from real attribution data, not estimates. Remaining 22.1% are direct/organic landings — these are included in the Direct/Organic channel bucket.
What this changes for spend allocation
The LTV:CAC analysis yields three actionable signals:
1. Meta acquisition is cash-flow negative at current CAC. LTV:CAC = 0.96:1 means every KES spent on Meta acquisition returns less than 1 KES in 90-day revenue — before COGS. Meta CAC climbed from the old 1,770 KES estimate to the canonical 2,490 KES (canonical = w11 adset spend ÷ first-time customers only). Without a material LTV improvement or CAC reduction, Meta spend is dilutive to the business.
2. Direct/Organic CAC = 0 KES. Any customer acquired via SEO, referral, WhatsApp, or organic social has infinite LTV:CAC. The journey pull now shows 77.9% attribution coverage — the Direct/Organic channel is clearly real and significant. Every KES invested in content, SEO, community, or email/WhatsApp retention compounds at zero marginal CAC.
3. Repeat purchase rate is the fastest path to LTV improvement. LTV90 ≈ 1.15 orders/customer means almost no one repurchases within 90 days. A post-purchase email/WhatsApp flow targeting the Jan–Mar cohorts (6,080+ customers) that converts even 10% to a second order at 2,085 KES average = ~1,269,000 KES incremental GMV at zero acquisition cost. This alone would push effective LTV:CAC above 3:1 without touching Meta spend.
Recommended reallocation priority:
- Freeze or reduce Meta spend until LTV:CAC recovers to at minimum 1.5:1 (LTV covers CAC + COGS)
- Invest in post-purchase retention (email/WhatsApp) — direct CAC = 0
- Use journey attribution to reallocate Meta budget toward adsets/audiences with lowest CAC
- Target 3:1 LTV:CAC by Q3 2026 via retention + CAC reduction, not LTV inflation