Monthly Board Snapshot
MER — March 2026 (break-even: 2.54x)
— 2.53x vs Feb 2026
GMV — March 2026 (KES)
— 1,448,568 KES vs Feb 2026
Orders — March 2026
▲ 744 vs Feb 2026
Gross Margin % (est. GMV - COGS 39.9% - fulfillment 15%)
— 45.1% vs Feb 2026
Pixel Coverage % (Meta purchases / Shopify orders)
— 73.6% vs Feb 2026
Net P&L — March 2026 (KES)
— -13,097 KES vs Feb 2026
MER below break-even (2.36x vs 2.54x target). Pixel coverage 72.2% — below 90% target. Net P&L negative at -52,559 KES. Gross margin % estimated at 45.1% (COGS 39.9% + fulfillment 15%). COGS per-SKU data unavailable; blended estimate used. Source: Shopify orders March 2026 (540 orders, 1,183,396 KES GMV) + Meta placement_insights W3 (500,769 KES spend).
3 of 5 metrics in the red — action required now. MER 2.36x is below the 2.54x break-even floor. Pixel coverage 72.2% means 1 in 4 orders is invisible to Meta attribution. Net P&L is negative at −52,559 KES for March 2026. Every day without CAPI enabled deepens the attribution gap.
Attribution Erosion — Why Spend ≠ Revenue
The ratio of Meta-reported purchases to Shopify orders has fallen from 1.42 (Jan 2025) to 0.73 (Apr 2026). When this ratio drops below 1.0 Meta is under-counting real purchases; below 0.80 is the CAPI implementation trigger.
What this shows: The ratio has been below parity since Jun-2025 dip and structurally below the 0.80 CAPI-target floor since Mar-2026 — Meta is now reporting 27% fewer purchases than Shopify records. Why it matters: Every automated bid decision Meta makes is calibrated on a purchase signal that is systematically understated, which suppresses delivery to high-intent audiences. Action: Enable Shopify-native CAPI immediately (estimated 1 hour, zero cost) — this is the single highest-leverage intervention available.
Source: MD-D-G3 attribution ratio claims — Jan-2025 through Apr-2026 Meta vs Shopify reconciliation.
MER + ROAS — Paired View
MER and ROAS compress together; showing them side-by-side reveals whether the problem is spend-mix or platform-wide. Both are below break-even.
MER = Shopify realized GMV / Meta ad spend (KES). Break-even at 2.54x per contribution margin model. Data: 2025-01 to 2026-04 (16 months where both Shopify orders and Meta placement_insights W3 overlap). Pre-2025 Meta spend data unavailable from W3 run; GMV-only months excluded to avoid inflated MER. Trend: MER compressed from 7.8x (Jan 2025, early low-spend ramp) to 1.77x (Apr 2026). Below break-even since Nov 2025.
What this shows: MER and ROAS track together — both collapsed after the Jan-2026 attribution window deprecation and again after the Mar-2026 Meta algo event. ROAS at 1.10x means every 1 KES of ad spend generates 1.10 KES revenue — barely above cost before COGS or fulfillment. Action: Do not increase spend until attribution is fixed; additional spend at 1.10x ROAS deepens losses.
Source: MD-D-001 (MER trend), Meta placement_insights W3 + Shopify orders reconciliation.
Revenue Components
Revenue decomposed into new-customer revenue and returning-customer revenue by month. NairoMarket is transactional (not subscription). "New customers" = GMV from first-time buyers in that month. "Returning revenue" = GMV from repeat buyers. Churn is implicit: customers absent from month = revenue lost. Data: Shopify orders parquet. Customer identity via customer.id field. Null customer_id orders assigned to new bucket. 6-month window: Nov 2025 to Apr 2026. Prior months excluded to keep chart focused on recent trajectory.