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Business Health Command Center

Is the business above or below break-even this month?

March MER (break-even: 2.54x)

22,793

March Realized GMV

22,771

March Ad Spend

40.8%

Realized Cash (gross less COGS 45%)

9,090

MER 2.36 vs break-even 2.54. 1,183,354 KES realized. 500,769 KES ad spend. Net cash positive after COGS assumption.

Claims: MER-MAR, GMV-MAR, SPEND-MAR, CASH-MAR

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Break-even GMV at 500k spend x 2.54 MER = 1.27M KES/mo. March 1.18M, Feb 1.42M — declining.

Claims: MER-MAR

How many orders per day over the last 90 days?

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April partial at ~15/day. March avg ~17/day. Trend down from Feb 26/day peak.

Which payment gateways handle the most volume and value?
No Results

IntaSend dominates at 5,928 tx / 11.98M KES. COD phased out Dec 2025. Manual 204 tx.

How many transactions are COD vs IntaSend, and what is the pending backlog?
No Results

2,925 PENDING SALE tx = 6.07M KES backlog. 1,478 VOID = 0 KES. IntaSend SUCCESS = 7,553 tx.

What is the size and quality of the customer base?

Total Customers

22,793

Zero-Purchase Customers (67%)

22,771

Repeat Customers

40.8%

Repeat Rate (repeat / active buyers)

9,090

22,892 total. 15,383 zero-purchase (67%). 982 repeat. Repeat rate 4.3% — weak retention.

What is the active catalog health — OOS rate and fully dead products?

Total Products

22,793

Active Products

22,771

Variants OOS %

40.8%

Fully OOS Products

9,090

22,771 active products. 42,281 of 103,579 variants OOS (40.8%). 9,090 products fully OOS.

Drill-through: Catalog cash leak detail

Claims: CL-01

What are the top business health warnings right now?

WARNINGS
========

[WARNING] MER 2.36 vs break-even 2.54 — business loses cash at current efficiency.
          Fix: push GMV to 1.27M/mo OR cut spend below 466k KES.

[WARNING] Catalog cash leak 210,000 KES/mo — 40.8% variants OOS starving Meta DPA.
          Fix: exclude OOS from Meta sync (1-2h task).
          See: /analysis/catalog-leak

[INFO]    COD pending backlog 6,067,353 KES (2,925 tx) — may never convert.
          COD phased out Dec 2025. Old orders still unresolved.

[INFO]    IntaSend error rate: 79 SALE/ERROR tx = 155,555 KES lost revenue.
          See: /analysis/payments (TBD)

Three active warnings. MER below break-even. Catalog bleeding 210k KES/mo. COD backlog 6M KES.

Drill-through: Catalog cash leak detail

Claims: MER-MAR, CL-01

What must the founder answer before taking action?

OPEN QUESTIONS
==============

1. Is March the right spend baseline? April partial data shows lower GMV — is spend still 500k/mo?
2. COGS 45% assumption — confirm with supplier invoices before computing true net cash.
3. COD 6M KES backlog — write off or pursue? Decision changes P&L by up to 6M KES.
4. IntaSend 7.8% error rate — is this a gateway config issue or product/checkout friction?
5. Repeat rate 4.3% — is CRM/email follow-up active? Doubling repeat rate = +53k KES/mo at current AOV.

Five decisions blocked on founder input.

Lineage
  • run_id: health-v1-2026-04-23
  • bulk_extract_id: bulk_orders_tx_customers_2026-04-23
  • manifest: data/raw/transactions_bulk/manifest.json
  • verified: 2026-04-23
  • claims: MER-MAR, GMV-MAR, SPEND-MAR, CASH-MAR, CL-01