ROAS Compression Story
How bad is ROAS compression right now?
MER (marketing efficiency ratio) Mar 2026
1.79x
Break-even MER
2.54x
CVR Now vs Jul 2024
0.48% (was 1.80%)
Spend Efficiency Decline
-77%
MER at break-even. CVR -73%. Efficiency -77%.
Claims: RC-01
When did MER cross below break-even?
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Crossed below break-even Feb 2026.
Claims: RC-01, RC-02
How fast did CVR collapse?
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CVR -73% in 6mo.
Claims: RC-02
Does more spend produce less ROAS?
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Diminishing returns curve.
Claims: RC-03
Which funnel leg compressed: CPC, CTR, or CVR?
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2 10 of 16 records
CVR collapsed, not CPC.
Claims: RC-02, RC-03
Which mechanism caused CVR decline most?
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Catalog = 60%+. Fix first.
Drill-through: catalog-leak | _pixel-diagnostics (TBD) | creative-fatigue (TBD) | _audience-saturation (TBD)__
Claims: RC-04
What fixes CVR fastest with lowest risk?
No Results
OOS exclusion first.
Claims: RC-05
What data gaps remain before acting?
- Last creative refresh date?
- Retargeting vs prospecting split?
- Audience overlap check done?
- Pixel match quality score?
- CAPI event deduplication active?
Answer before acting.
Lineage
- run_id:
roas-compression-v1-2026-04-23 - manifest:
docs/sprint1/04a_depth_roas_curve.md - verified: 2026-04-23
- claims:
RC-01,RC-02,RC-03,RC-04,RC-05